RBI on trade, risk, and opportunity across CEE, Central Asia, and the Caucasus - Trade Treasury Payments

Across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Central Asia, and the Caucasus, trade flows are being redrawn by a rising demand for diversification. To learn more about this shift and the impact that it has for businesses on the ground, Trade Treasury Payments (TTP) spoke with Raiffeisen Bank International’s (RBI) Group Head Institutional Clients, Elitza Kavrakova, and Head of Group Transaction Banking, Sabine Zucker. 

Regional economies are deepening ties both to the west with the European Union and to the east with China, investing heavily in infrastructure and expanding domestic manufacturing capabilities. “We’re seeing increased efforts to diversify local economies, expand manufacturing, and strengthen cross-border cooperation,” Zucker said. 

These dynamics are opening space for new financial services and investment opportunities, particularly for institutions with deep regional knowledge and cross-border capabilities.

Crucially, this transition coincides with the rise of the Global South as a force in global trade. Countries long associated with raw material exports are moving up the value chain. “Developing countries are pivoting from raw material exports to sophisticated manufactured goods,” Zucker explained, “which opens new trade corridors for our customers.”

A dynamic risk environment demands dynamic frameworks

Opportunity and risk rarely appear in isolation. As opportunities emerge with new corridors, so too do the complexities and risks of operating within them. Risk, in its many forms, is a constantly moving target, especially in emerging markets where political alliances can be fluid and enforcement uneven.

“The key challenge in these emerging trade corridors is navigating a dynamic and ever-changing geopolitical, credit-risk, and compliance landscape in these volatile times,” said Zucker. RBI’s response has been to institutionalise adaptability. For Elitza Kavrakova, this approach requires not just better tools, but also a broader mindset. 

In her view, risk must be assessed across financial and non-financial dimensions simultaneously. “Developing, what I call, a 360-degree risk view, which includes financial and non-financial risks and getting better at using data is key to better manoeuvre in such a dynamic environment.”

This is particularly the case in sectors with heightened sensitivity. Take for example RBI’s restrictive stance on defence-related activity, which is guided by Austria’s neutrality and international legal frameworks. Transactions the bank processes involving dual-use goods must undergo comprehensive due diligence and end-use verification, with compliance checks integrated at each stage. 

Multilateral institutions also play a supporting role. Kavrakova emphasised that collaboration with partners such as ADB, EBRD, and IFC helps banks to operate more effectively in higher-risk environments. “I wouldn’t talk about de-risking here; rather, better risk management and risk mitigation,” Kavrakova said. “I see the main role of supranational institutions in supporting commercial banks when it comes to developing markets that are still associated with higher credit and compliance risks.”

Uzbekistan, sustainability, and Ukraine’s recovery

Among the emerging markets RBI is focused on, Uzbekistan is considered to be a regional bright spot. With sustained GDP growth of 6.5% annually over the past decade and rapid trade expansion (“Trade turnover hit $24.6 bn by April 2025, with exports up 35% year-on-year,” Kavrakova said), the country is drawing in capital and attention from banks, corporates, and development agencies alike.

Uzbekistan’s transformation is not coincidental. It is the result of what Kavrakova described as “a potent mix of rapid trade expansion, strategic location, infrastructure investment, regulatory opening, global partnerships, and domestic economic reform.” As trade volumes grow, so does the demand for modern trade finance instruments which is a reason why the market is embracing tools like supply chain finance, factoring, and credit lines on top of traditional letters of credit and guarantees.

This same logic is driving new approaches to green finance across the region. With EU-aligned funding streams and sustainability-linked financial products entering the market, the role of regional lenders is expanding. Zucker argued that regional banks are “acting as both enablers and accelerators of sustainable investment at the local level.”

However, capital is only part of a larger equation, where knowledge, particularly around ESG frameworks, is increasingly important. “Regional banks in Central and Eastern Europe are key drivers of the energy transition,” Kavrakova said, “because they support channeling EU and state funds and offer green products like sustainability-linked loans and green bonds, including educating and helping build up know-how and expertise on client level in respect of green and sustainable products.”

Nowhere is this dual role (financial and developmental) more evident than in Ukraine. Even amid conflict, RBI has maintained its support for local trade activity, operating in close cooperation with international partners. Zucker noted that RBI has “well-established cooperation with all major financial institutions in Ukraine to support the delivery of critical goods into the country.” In practice, this means deploying trade instruments that provide both liquidity and risk mitigation, allowing essential supply chains to function during extraordinary circumstances.

Moving beyond legacy relationships

The war in Ukraine has accelerated the economic decoupling of many countries from Russia and in parts of CEE and Southeastern Europe, Russia’s influence has already sharply declined. “Russia has become less relevant and has often fallen out of the top 10 trading partners,” Kavrakova explained, pointing to a broader reorientation of economic priorities.

For other CIS economies, the story is more nuanced, but even there, governments are distancing themselves from Soviet-era legacies in subtle but deliberate ways.

Zucker noted RBI’s approach to this shift as focusing on client needs across markets. “We stay on the pulse of the market and strive to fully understand our clients’ requirements across different regions and industries,” she said. “The combination of global reach, innovative high-level IT solutions with personal touch, and superior customer experience allows us to build long-term partnerships and expand successfully into new markets.”

The aim is to anticipate where trade is going and to meet clients there, with the right tools in hand.

Precision in complexity

As global trade fragments, the challenges that trade banks face are becoming more tied to their ability to operate with confidence in environments that carry a high degree of volatility. RBI’s experience in markets like Uzbekistan and Ukraine is a case study in how a carefully calibrated approach to risk can unlock real-world outcomes for firms and people on the ground.

In an era of contested trade routes, regulatory asymmetry, and shifting alliances, that may prove to be the real differentiator.