VIDEO | Inside the WTO World Trade Report: Will artificial intelligence help or hinder trade - Trade Treasury Payments

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At the launch of the World Trade Report 2025 in Geneva, Trade Treasury Payments (TTP) spoke with Emmanuelle Ganne, Chief of Digital Trade and Frontier Technologies at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The report takes stock of how artificial intelligence (AI) could reshape global trade in the coming decades and its findings point to both enormous opportunities and stark risks. Trade could expand by nearly 40 per cent by 2040, but without the right policies, the digital divide between economies could widen.

AI can serve as a catalyst for inclusive, trade-led growth, but only if governments invest in digital infrastructure, workforce skills, and an open, predictable trading system.

Opportunities and risks of AI for global trade

Ganne explained that AI has the potential to significantly boost economic growth across all regions. WTO modelling supports this view. By 2040, global trade could grow by 34-37 per cent, with the fastest expansion expected in digitally deliverable services such as AI-enabled tools. Global GDP could rise by 12-13 per cent in the same timeframe.

For low-income economies, the stakes are particularly high. In a benchmark scenario where digital gaps persist, their incomes would grow by only 8 per cent, compared to 14 per cent for high-income economies. But in a scenario where digital infrastructure improves and AI adoption is widespread, gains for low-income economies could nearly double, rising to 15 per cent.

“The potential is significant,” Ganne said. “But there are risks of AI growth widening divides. Whether AI becomes a force for convergence or divergence will depend on whether we close the digital divide, invest in skills, and maintain a conducive policy environment.”

What it will take to unlock AI’s potential

Asked how to turn potential into reality, Ganne identified three enablers: connectivity, education, and openness. According to estimates from researchers at Cornell University, closing the global connectivity gap will require $418 billion of investment to bring unconnected populations online. At present, nearly 2.6 billion people remain offline, most of them in developing economies.

Infrastructure, however, is only one piece of the digital inclusion puzzle, skills are just as important. “Investing in education, training, reskilling and putting in place the right social safety nets is critical if we want to avoid widening inequalities,” Ganne said. The report is uncertain regarding the impact of AI on labour markets, but makes clear that taking proactive measures can help to mitigate risks and support workers in their transition to more digital career paths.

On the rules front, the WTO already provide part of the framework for inclusive AI growth. The organisation’s Information Technology Agreement eliminates tariffs on critical inputs like semiconductors, while the General Agreement on Trade in Services helps with AI-related services. 

Beyond rules, the WTO is also working to facilitate the AI economy through capacity-building and technical assistance. “We have projects like the Digital Trade for Africa programme with the World Bank, which supports the digital development of dozens of countries,” Ganne said. Stronger cooperation with other international organisations will also be essential, since many challenges (from labour market disruption to environmental impacts) extend beyond trade policy alone.

Choices today will shape trade tomorrow

“I’m both hopeful and worried. AI opens tremendous opportunities, but there is a risk of widening existing divides. Whether AI truly becomes a force for convergence or divergence really depends on the choices we make today,” Ganne said.

The WTO’s report echoes this sentiment, providing evidence of AI’s potential to reduce trade costs and boost productivity is real, but also of uneven access to digital tools and infrastructure could leave many behind. With deliberate investment and international cooperation, the benefits of AI-enabled trade could be widely shared.

The World Trade Report 2025 is now available to download from the WTO website.