Video | Export Credit Outlook: Stability in the short term, opportunity in the long term - Trade Treasury Payments

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The Berne Union’s Business Confidence Index (H2 2025) highlights a cautious but steady picture for short-term export credit insurance, alongside a more confident outlook for medium-to-long-term (MLT) business. The findings reflect the dual pressures of tariff-driven trade disruption and the financing demands of large-scale infrastructure and energy projects.

TTP heard from Lewis Evans, Economic Research Analyst at Berne Union to explain the findings.

Short-term: Stability, with caution on claims

In the short-term market, demand sentiment remains stable, with the weighted index at 52.2, close to neutral. Many exporters continue to delay requests for cover until the full impact of tariffs becomes clearer. For providers in East Asia, where US tariffs ranging from 10–30% have slowed trade flows, this has translated into suppressed volumes.

At the same time, there are pockets of resilience. Public providers point to increased activity from SME exporters and rising demand linked to defence exports as governments expand budgets in response to geopolitical risk.

Chart 1: Weighted Expected Demand – ST vs MLT, H2 2025

On the risk side, the outlook remains more negative. The index for short-term claims stands at 71.1, elevated compared to historical averages though slightly improved from earlier in the year. Members are especially focused on how rising import prices are pressuring buyers in tariff-sensitive sectors such as steel (subject to a 50% tariff on US imports), autos (25%), and copper (50%).

Chart 2: Weighted Expected Claims – ST vs MLT, H2 2025

Beyond tariffs, respondents also highlight exposures linked to political instability in the Middle East and Latin America, and pre-claims risk in Bangladesh’s banking sector, which is undergoing IMF-backed reforms.

Medium-to-long-term: Infrastructure and energy drive growth

The picture looks more optimistic for MLT business. Confidence in demand stands at 58.3, with private insurers particularly bullish (index: 70.8). Over 40% of private members anticipate stronger pipelines in the second half of the year, driven by financing needs in infrastructure, energy, and defence.

One clear driver is the global push for infrastructure investment, from Germany’s €500bn infrastructure fund (with €100bn earmarked for energy transition projects) to rising defence budgets across Europe and North America. Collaboration with multilateral development banks (MDBs) and development finance institutions (DFIs) is also seen as an important source of new deal flow.

Chart 3: Trend in Demand Index, 2021–2025 – ST vs MLT

On the claims side, expectations are steadier. The MLT claims index registers at 54.9, consistent with historical norms. Still, providers remain alert to sovereign debt risks in Africa—particularly Senegal, which has seen fresh downgrades—and to policy-driven uncertainty in US renewable energy, where recent tax credit changes have slowed approvals for wind and solar projects.

Chart 4: Unweighted Expected Demand and Claims – Public vs Private

Outlook

Overall, Berne Union members describe a short-term outlook that is stable but cautious, shaped by tariffs and trade policy disruption, while the medium-to-long-term picture is more confident, underpinned by infrastructure pipelines, energy transition financing, and new forms of collaboration.